.jpeg)
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
The Battle of Ohio
Among interleague matchups, the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians haven't had quite as storied a rivalry as most. The teams have never squared off in the World Series, on only three occasions since interleague play began in 1997 both finished a season with winning records, and only twice made the postseason in the same year (2013, when both teams were dispatched in the Wild-Card Game and the COVID-shortened 2020, when both teams were swept in the best-of-three Wild-Card series).
This year, a Reds-Guardians meeting carries weight, what with the Guardians sporting the majors' fourth-best record as well as a 4½-game lead in the American League Central and the Reds in the midst of a hot streak that has seen them win 12 of their past 16 games to close their National League Central deficit to seven games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
Wednesday's game pits the Guardians' top-scoring fantasy starting pitcher, Tanner Bibee (151 points), against the Reds' Nick Lodolo, whose 15.0 fantasy points per start average thus far would be a top-13 overall number if he had the requisite innings to qualify for the ERA title. It's the day's beneath-the-radar pitchers' duel -- assuming you regard the Framber Valdez-Logan Webb as the obvious one -- but both pitchers enter the game facing notable on-paper matchups challenges.
For Bibee, besides the obvious challenge of the Reds' offense running hot (league-best 6.22 runs per game average in June, third-best 5.25 during their aforementioned 16-game stretch), there's the park factor at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park. The venue has been baseball's most homer-friendly venue (124 factor, per Statcast, meaning it inflates home runs overall by 24% compared to a neutral park) so far in 2024, and it's also No. 1 in the category per our projections (118 factor). Bibee has had occasional struggles against left-handed hitters (.266/.341/.449 rates) and has a 31.8% fly-ball rate in 2024, so there's some downside involved to the matchup.
For Lodolo, his challenge is facing a Guardians offense that has exhibited greater success against left- (.326 team wOBA) than right-handed pitchers (.305) this season, in large part because of the outstanding play of utilityman/No. 5 hitter David Fry (.375/.544/.732 rates against lefties, and no, that is not a typo).
As both pitchers are in the midst of impressive stretches, Bibee posting two wins, three quality starts, a 2.12 ERA and 32 K's in his past five starts, and Lodolo riding back-to-back quality starts, beyond just his season-to-date domination, expect the pitchers to hold the advantage in this one. Their strikeout projections especially stand out, and it makes sense, considering Great American Ball Park has historically been one of the better venues in baseball for K's.
Everything else you need to know for Wednesday
Minnesota Twins ace Pablo Lopez is in quite a funk of late, surrendering at least six runs in three of his past four starts, during which time his ERA is 9.15. Gopheritis has been a particular problem, as he has served up six home runs in that time, and 13 -- or 54% of his entire 2023 total -- for the season. A home matchup against the Colorado Rockies, however, might well be the cure for what ails Lopez, as the Rockies have been one of baseball's least powerful -- and, really, overall worst -- offenses. Their 2.1% homer rate including their Coors games is second-worst in baseball, and they are averaging a fourth-worst 3.58 runs per game on the road. Lopez is a slam-dunk fantasy starter, though that also means he'll need to be up to the task if he's to avoid a wholesale panic among his managers.
The Chicago White Sox remain baseball's punching-bag matchup for opposing pitchers, even with a healthy Luis Robert Jr. back in the lineup. In his 13 games this season, they've averaged 3.23 runs, more than a full run beneath the league average and more than one-third of a run beneath any of the other 29 teams' seasonal averages. Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners might be coming off a bad outing in Kansas City (7 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB in 5 IP), but he's in good shape for a big rebound here, and the projections concur.
It's a battle of rookie starters in Baltimore, as the Braves' Spencer Schwellenbach and Orioles' Cade Povich, each of whom made their teams' top 10-prospect lists but missed Kiley McDaniel's top 100 overall cutoff during the preseason, square off. Neither Schwellenbach nor Povich impressed in starts last week, with the former serving up six runs in 4 2/3 innings to the Boston Red Sox, and the latter walking four Toronto Blue Jays en route to allowing six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Both struggled with command, and neither possesses top-shelf stuff, meaning this could be one of the day's best games for offense. In particular, the Braves' lineup is littered with good fastball hitters, with their two catchers, Sean Murphy (.288/.421/.593 against lefties' four-seamers since the beginning of 2022) and Travis d'Arnaud (.281/.338/.531), specific standouts. Check the early lineup to see which gets the nod.
If you're a believer in revenge games, be aware that Boston Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta faces his former team, the Philadelphia Phillies in a home start at Fenway Park, a slightly better venue for a fly ball-leaning righty against a lefty-laden lineup than would be Citizens Bank Park. Now armed with a sweeper and more polished changeup, Pivetta has shaped up as one of the game's best strikeout artists when he's at his best in a given outing -- he has struck out double-digit batters five times since last year's All-Star break -- but has struggled at times with more potent offenses (see last August 25 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, or May 8 at the Braves). With the adjustments he has made, he needs to be in fantasy lineups each turn, though there's certainly volatility in this specific matchup. That the Phillies are currently without both Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto, each on the injured list, helps Pivetta's cause.
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!